How to handle a news-driven market, and not get chopped to pieces!
Walking through our latest trade: $CRWV
Key takeaway: When you’re not sure, less is more!
Markets failed to sustain yesterday's strength as Middle East tensions escalated.
Headline-driven markets can disrupt even the strongest entries, so caution is warranted.
In the Trading Room, we executed a solid trade in CRWV, a top focus name.
We capitalized on its explosive move to all-time highs to trim part of our position, lock in profits, and manage risk.
* All trades are posted in real-time in the room
Feedback was largely negative today, prompting a defensive stance for tomorrow, especially with the FOMC meeting looming.
Chop has been the theme lately— signalling a need to slow down until we see confirmation of upward momentum in our PORTFOLIO, & watchlist.
Tonight, I’ll look at:
How we bought CRWV this morning
Setups for tomorrow in case of strength
Health of our watchlist, a peek at recent breakouts
Pros and Cons of the indexes and where they lie
Handling news driven markets
Market Breadth, Internals
Hot themes, Portfolio review
Let’s dive in!
QQQ
The QQQ couldn’t hold yesterday’s gains, raising the possibility of a lower high forming.
Price slipped below the moving averages, and we’re watching to see if the 21 EMA gets tested.
Back-and-forth action like this is tricky, and overtrading in this environment can lead to avoidable losses.
Reclaiming 537, the prior week’s high, is the next critical level.
SPY
The SPY dipped below the 10 EMA and, if unsupported, could test the 21 EMA.
Choppy price action persists—yesterday’s rally looked promising until war risks resurfaced, bringing renewed equity weakness.
The SPY failed to make new highs, so we must stay alert for a potential lower high playing out here.
It’s worth noting that the indexes haven’t touched their 21 EMAs in a while, so a pullback here wouldn’t be unusual and could create attractive opportunities.
IWM
The IWM retreated to the 21 EMA, a key support level bulls need to defend.
Price is caught in a congested zone but has room to fall to the 10-week moving average if support fails.
The market may be awaiting tomorrow’s Fed meeting for clarity on interest rate policy.
ARKK
ARKK pulled back slightly but remains above the rising 5 SMA.
Today’s engulfing candle isn’t ideal, with a gap below, but price is holding well above the 10 EMA.
It’s hard to be overly bearish on an ETF with such a solid technical setup and some quality holdings.
Gold
Despite rising Middle East tensions, gold showed surprising weakness.
Price continues to consolidate after yesterday’s reversal candle but remains above key moving averages, so don’t dismiss this move too quickly.
Bitcoin (long)
Bitcoin looked strong yesterday but faltered as weakness hit the overall market. I am seeing volatility increase also.
Price is now testing the 50-day moving average, where it must hold.
Our stop-loss is set at 102,500, and we’ll see if this key support holds.
USD
The dollar bounced sharply, attempting to reclaim the 10 EMA for the first time in weeks.
However, significant moving average resistance looms above, posing a tough challenge.
TNX
The 10-year yield fell back to the 50-day moving average, stuck in a choppy range for weeks.
The downtrend line continues to act as stiff resistance, leaving price directionless.
Our market indicator
Remains on a YELLOW signal.
We very narrowly saw net highs today, but its getting choppier out there. News is popping up at every turn. Slowing it down.
Qullamaggie indicator
Our Qullamaggie indicator flips quickly back to RISK OFF.
Back below the 10EMA we go.
Stay in sync with the market. Get daily market and hot theme review, actionable trade ideas, portfolio, the full video version of my newsletter, & more straight to your inbox.
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to The Smart Stocks Newsletter to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.