Can 21EMA support hold? How to safely handle gap up days.

PLTR enters the portfolio, Bitcoin holds serve.

Yesterday after hours news sent markets into a frenzy, setting the stage for a significant gap and rally today.

Gap ups are the trickiest days to add exposure, which is why I most often sit or do very little buying.

However, optimistic about another follow-through day, we added another position, PLTR, using the opening range breakout.

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As always, all trade entries are shared in real-time in The Trading Room:

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We saw a successful wedge pop breakout above the moving averages, and now the question is whether the market can sustain this bullish momentum.

We narrowly held the moving averages and closed at the day's high, but was today truly bullish, or the weaker close bearish?

Ideally, the market digests this move constructively above the 21EMA, or bears may take control again. Next few days are critical.

Let’s break down another crazy day and look at our plan tomorrow!

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QQQ

The market gapped up on the news, looking explosive early in the session.

However, as more news emerged, a sharp fade followed.

Prices battled the 21 EMA all afternoon, closing just below it. Ideally, the low of the day holds, and prices stay above the 21 EMA, consolidating tightly sideways—my most optimistic scenario.

A break lower could test the 10 EMA, where digestion might occur. The next few days will be critical.

SPY

SPY gapped above the 21 EMA but failed to hold moving average support.

It will be intriguing to see if it can quickly reclaim the moving average or drift lower.

If the gap holds and a tight range forms, numerous setups could emerge. Patience is key as we await the market’s next move.

IWM

IWM also opened higher with strong volume.

It closed just below the 21 EMA, but the 10 EMA is curling upward—a constructive sign. The reaction to this gap-up is critical: Will it be digested well, filled immediately, or lead to a rally?

I’m staying patient, letting the market dictate its next move.

Gold

After gold’s brutal reversal yesterday, it’s finding support at its rising 10 EMA.

It may need time to consolidate after becoming overextended, but picking tops is risky. Is there more fuel for this rally? I’m not so sure, as the move feels late-stage, but anything’s possible.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin performed strongly, holding all of yesterday’s gains.

Our new position looks solid, with tight action forming after the breakout.

Clearing 95,000 could spark a run to 100,000 or beyond. For now, price action, relative strength, and volume align favourably, but I’m taking it day by day.

USD

The USD is attempting a bounce off its low, approaching the declining 10 EMA. Let’s see if it rejects there or pushes above to reclaim it.

TNX

The 10-year yield saw significant volatility, printing a large hammer candle after breaching support and recovering.

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Our market indicator

Remains on a RED signal.

Despite a race signal, today marked the first net high since February 19—a small but important shift.

If we build on this with more net highs, it could signal a change in market character.

Qullamaggie indicator

Our Qullamaggie indicator remains RISK OFF.

Prices made a solid attempt to reclaim the 21 EMA today. Continued upside could bring us closer to a bullish moving average crossover.

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SKFD

A massive move higher has pushed us back to overbought levels.

Adding long exposure now is challenging. Patience is required.

NCFD

Overbought conditions persist.